Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jul 30th, 2025

Kevin Blue • July 30, 2025

Bank of Canada holds policy rate at 2¾%.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

July 30, 2025

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%.

While some elements of US trade policy have started to become more concrete in recent weeks, trade negotiations are fluid, threats of new sectoral tariffs continue, and US trade actions remain unpredictable. Against this backdrop, the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) does not present conventional base case projections for GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally. Instead, it presents a current tariff scenario based on tariffs in place or agreed as of July 27, and two alternative scenarios—one with an escalation and another with a de-escalation of tariffs.

While US tariffs have created volatility in global trade, the global economy has been reasonably resilient. In the United States, the pace of growth moderated in the first half of 2025, but the labour market has remained solid. US CPI inflation ticked up in June with some evidence that tariffs are starting to be passed on to consumer prices. The euro area economy grew modestly in the first half of the year. In China, the decline in exports to the United States has been largely offset by an increase in exports to the rest of the world. Global oil prices are close to their levels in April despite some volatility. Global equity markets have risen, and corporate credit spreads have narrowed. Longer-term government bond yields have moved up. Canada’s exchange rate has appreciated against a broadly weaker US dollar.

The current tariff scenario has global growth slowing modestly to around 2½% by the end of 2025 before returning to around 3% over 2026 and 2027.

In Canada, US tariffs are disrupting trade but overall, the economy is showing some resilience so far. After robust growth in the first quarter of 2025 due to a pull-forward in exports to get ahead of tariffs, GDP likely declined by about 1.5% in the second quarter. This contraction is mostly due to a sharp reversal in exports following the pull-forward, as well as lower US demand for Canadian goods due to tariffs. Growth in business and household spending is being restrained by uncertainty. Labour market conditions have weakened in sectors affected by trade, but employment has held up in other parts of the economy. The unemployment rate has moved up gradually since the beginning of the year to 6.9% in June and wage growth has continued to ease. A number of economic indicators suggest excess supply in the economy has increased since January.

In the current tariff scenario, after contracting in the second quarter, GDP growth picks up to about 1% in the second half of this year as exports stabilize and household spending increases gradually. In this scenario, economic slack persists in 2026 and diminishes as growth picks up to close to 2% in 2027. In the de-escalation scenario, economic growth rebounds faster, while in the escalation scenario, the economy contracts through the rest of this year.

CPI inflation was 1.9% in June, up slightly from the previous month. Excluding taxes, inflation rose to 2.5% in June, up from around 2% in the second half of last year. This largely reflects an increase in non-energy goods prices. High shelter price inflation remains the main contributor to overall inflation, but it continues to ease. Based on a range of indicators, underlying inflation is assessed to be around 2½%.

In the current tariff scenario, total inflation stays close to 2% over the scenario horizon as the upward and downward pressures on inflation roughly offset. There are risks around this inflation scenario. As the alternative scenarios illustrate, lower tariffs would reduce the direct upward pressure on inflation and higher tariffs would increase it. In addition, many businesses are reporting costs related to sourcing new suppliers and developing new markets. These costs could add upward pressure to consumer prices.

With still high uncertainty, the Canadian economy showing some resilience, and ongoing pressures on underlying inflation, Governing Council decided to hold the policy interest rate unchanged. We will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs related to tariffs and the reconfiguration of trade. If a weakening economy puts further downward pressure on inflation and the upward price pressures from the trade disruptions are contained, there may be a need for a reduction in the policy interest rate.

Governing Council is proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy. These include: the extent to which higher US tariffs reduce demand for Canadian exports; how much this spills over into business investment, employment and household spending; how much and how quickly cost increases from tariffs and trade disruptions are passed on to consumer prices; and how inflation expectations evolve.

We are focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. We will support economic growth while ensuring inflation remains well controlled.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 17, 2025.

Read the July 30th., 2025 Monetary Report

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Why a Mortgage Pre-Approval Protects Both Your Head and Your Heart

By Kevin Blue • November 4, 2026

Why a Mortgage Pre-Approval Protects Both Your Head and Your Heart There’s no denying it—buying a home is an emotional journey. In a competitive market, it can feel like you need to stretch beyond your comfort zone or bid above asking just to have a chance. That pressure can make it hard to separate what you want from what you can realistically afford. One of the biggest pitfalls buyers face is falling in love with a home that’s outside their price range. Once that happens, every other property seems like a compromise—even the ones that might have been a perfect fit otherwise. The best way to avoid this heartache? Get pre-approved before you start shopping. What a Pre-Approval Does for You A mortgage pre-approval gives you more than just a number—it provides clarity, confidence, and protection: Know your buying power : Shop within your true price range and avoid disappointment. Spot potential roadblocks : Uncover issues like credit bureau errors before you make an offer. Get organized : Learn exactly what documentation you’ll need so there are no surprises. Lock in a rate : Many lenders hold your rate for 30–120 days, giving you peace of mind if rates rise. Save yourself heartache : Protect yourself from falling for a home you can’t afford. Head vs. Heart Buying a home is about balance. Your head tells you what’s financially sound, your heart tells you what feels right—and both matter. A pre-approval helps bring those two sides together, so you can make confident choices without emotional stress clouding your judgment. The Bottom Line Looking at properties for fun is one thing—but if you’re serious about buying, a pre-approval is the smartest first step you can take. It sets realistic expectations, saves time, and protects your emotions along the way. If you’d like to explore your options and get pre-approved, I’d be happy to walk through the process with you. Let’s make sure you’re ready to shop with confidence.

Bank of Canada Raises Rates to 2.5%: What It Means for Vancouver Island Borrowers

By Kevin Blue • October 28, 2026

This morning, the Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate by 0.25%, bringing it to 2.5%. Whether you own a home in Parksville or Qualicum Beach, have a renewal on the horizon, or you're in the middle of a build or commercial deal, this decision is worth understanding. Here's what changed, why it happened, and what I'd be thinking about if I were in your shoes. Why the Bank of Canada Raised Rates The short answer is inflation. Prices have been rising faster than the Bank's 2% target, and it wants to get ahead of the problem before it spreads. Here's what's behind the decision: High energy prices. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has kept oil prices elevated for months. Inflation has been running around 3% since April and is expected to reach about 3.5% by the end of the year. Rising business costs. Higher fuel and imported material costs are making it more expensive to produce and ship goods. The Bank expects more of those costs to be passed on to consumers over the next year. A stronger economy than expected. Canada's economy grew faster than forecast through the middle of the year, supported by solid consumer spending and a rebound in business investment. By raising rates now, the Bank is trying to stop high energy costs from pushing up the price of everything else. What This Means for Homeowners Variable-rate mortgages and HELOCs Lenders typically adjust their prime rate to match the Bank of Canada's moves, and variable mortgages and home equity lines of credit are tied to prime. Expect your rate to go up by about 0.25%. Depending on your mortgage, that means either a higher payment or more of your payment going to interest. Fixed-rate mortgages Your rate and payment won't change until your term ends. Fixed rates for new mortgages follow the bond market, and bond yields have already been rising, so fixed rates may stay elevated or move higher. Renewals If your renewal is within the next few months, start the conversation now. Many lenders let you secure a rate up to 120 days in advance, which can protect you if rates keep climbing. And please don't just sign your bank's renewal letter. It's rarely their best offer. Buyers Higher rates can reduce how much you qualify for. A pre-approval lets you hold a rate while you shop, so you know your real budget before making an offer. My mortgage calculators are a good place to start running numbers. What This Means for Builds, Commercial and Private Deals This is where rate changes can have the biggest ripple effect, and where planning ahead pays off most. Construction projects Many construction and draw mortgages are tied to prime during the build, so your interest costs may rise as funds are advanced. If you're mid-build, it's worth reviewing your budget for carrying costs. If you're planning a project, factor today's rates into your numbers from day one. Learn more about my construction financing services. Commercial borrowers Variable commercial loans will feel this increase directly. If you're refinancing or acquiring a property, higher rates can affect how lenders view your debt coverage, so the structure of the deal matters more than ever. See my commercial lending page for the types of files I work on. Private lending Private loans are usually short-term bridges to institutional financing. When rates are rising, your exit strategy deserves extra attention. Make sure the takeout financing still works at today's rates, not just the rates you assumed when the deal started. Read more about private lending . What to Expect Next The Bank of Canada said further increases are possible, but it plans to move carefully given uncertainty around energy prices and Canada-US trade. Its forecast has inflation averaging about 3% through 2027 before returning to the 2% target by mid-2028. The next rate announcement is scheduled for December 9, 2026 . Frequently Asked Questions What is the Bank of Canada's rate now? As of October 28, 2026, the Bank of Canada's policy rate is 2.5%, up from 2.25%. Will my mortgage payment go up? If you have a variable-rate mortgage, a HELOC or a prime-based construction loan, it likely will. Fixed-rate mortgages won't change until the term ends. Should I lock in a fixed rate? It depends on your terms, any penalties for switching, and your plans for the property. This is exactly what my annual mortgage reviews are for, and the right answer looks different for everyone. When is the next rate announcement? December 9, 2026. Let's Talk About Your Situation Rate changes are a good reminder to check that your financing still fits your plans. Whether you're a homeowner in Parksville or Qualicum Beach, mid-way through a build, or working on a commercial or private deal anywhere on Vancouver Island, I'd be happy to review where you stand. Reach out anytime, or apply online to get started. No obligation, no pressure. This article is for general information only and is not financial advice. Rates and lender policies change often. Please speak with a licensed mortgage professional about your specific situation.

Breaking Down the Real Costs of Homeownership

By Kevin Blue • October 21, 2026

Don’t Forget About Closing Costs When planning to buy a home, most people focus on saving for the down payment. But the truth is, that’s only part of the equation. To actually finalize the purchase, you’ll also need to budget for closing costs —the out-of-pocket expenses that come up before you get the keys. Closing costs can add up quickly, which is why they should be part of your pre-approval conversation right from the start. Lenders will even require proof that you’ve got enough funds set aside. For example, if you’re getting an insured (high-ratio) mortgage, you’ll need at least 1.5% of the purchase price available in addition to your down payment. That means a 10% down payment actually requires 11.5% of the purchase price in cash to make everything work. Let’s break down some of the most common expenses you should prepare for: 1. Home Inspection & Appraisal Inspection : Paid by you, this gives peace of mind that the property is in good shape and doesn’t have hidden problems. Appraisal : Required by the lender to confirm value. Sometimes this is covered by mortgage insurance, sometimes by you. 2. Legal Fees A lawyer or notary is required to handle the title transfer and make sure the mortgage is properly registered. Legal fees are often one of the larger closing costs—unless you’re also responsible for property transfer tax. 3. Taxes Many provinces charge a property or land transfer tax based on the home’s purchase price. These fees can range from hundreds to thousands of dollars, so you’ll want to factor them in early. 4. Insurance Property insurance is mandatory—lenders won’t release funds without proof that the home is insured on closing day. Optional coverage like mortgage life, disability, or critical illness insurance may also be worth considering depending on your financial plan. 5. Moving Costs Whether you’re renting a truck, hiring movers, or bribing friends with pizza and gas money, moving comes with expenses. Cross-country moves especially can be surprisingly pricey. 6. Utilities & Deposits Setting up new services (electricity, water, internet) can involve connection fees or deposits, particularly if you don’t already have a payment history with the utility provider. Plan Ahead, Stress Less This list covers the big-ticket items, but every purchase is unique. That’s why it pays to have an accurate estimate of your personal closing costs before you make an offer. If you’d like help planning ahead—or want a breakdown tailored to your situation—let’s connect. I’d be happy to walk you through the numbers and make sure you’re fully prepared.